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The Triumph of Contrarian Investing :
Crowds, Manias, and Beating the Market by Going Against the Grain
by Ned Davis
Publisher: McGraw-Hill; 1 edition (November 4, 2003)
Contrarian investing--what it is, how it works, and why millions of successful investors see it as the only logical choice
"(Davis is) one of the most widely respected technical market analysts operating today."
Contrarians say that, when it comes to investing, the crowd is wrong more often than it is right--and prove it with their 200-year history of success! The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a fascinating, in depth examination of the impact of crowd psychology on markets, how the crowd is often predictably incorrect, and how investors can use long-proven contrarian investing strategies to uncover tremendous buying and selling opportunities.
Ned Davis, one of today's biggest names in investing, reveals:
How to ignore the temptation to "join the crowd" and uncover tremendous opportunities
Consistent signs that a stock's price has been driven too high or too low
Strategies for protecting contrarian portfolios when--as sometimes happens--the crowd is right
From the Back Cover
How Going Against the Crowd Can Dramatically Improve Your Investment Performance--With Charts and Numbers to Back It Up!
Praise for The Triumph of Contrarian Investing:
"Ned Davis adds to our understanding of contrarian behavior by taking his usual highly-disciplined quantitative approach to measuring investment behavior. This book will enable you to remain objective and effective no matter how intense the frenzy, excitement, or boredom becomes."
--Byron R. Wien, Managing Director and Senior Investment Strategist, Morgan Stanley
"Ned Davis is one of the greatest market historians of the past century."
--Louis Rukeyser, Host, "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street" (June 27, 2003)
"Ned Davis lays out the hard facts that will help you keep your head when others are losing theirs."
--Michael Sivy, Editor at Large, Money
"It took Ned Davis to sculpt a potent array of contrary opinion indicators which, taken together, are fully capable of reducing investment risks while significantly increasing investment returns."
--Paul Macrae Montgomery, Analyst, Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc.
"The Triumph of Contrarian Investing weaves together history, behavioral theory, market lore and time-tested sentiment indicators to help the investor act rationally when the crowd is either paralyzed with fear or overcome by greed and optimism."
--Jonathan R. Laing, Senior Editor, Barron's
"Most people fancy themselves contrarians. But there's a lot more to being contrary than doing the opposite of what everyone else is doing. The Triumph of Contrarian Investing is a practical guide to going against the herd on the Street without getting trampled."
--John Waggoner, Columnist, USA Today
"All the evidence in this book ... shows the crowd is almost always wrong at extremes ..."
--Ned Davis, From Chapter 1
It is one thing to say that the crowd is always wrong at extremes. It is quite another to provide convincing proof.
In The Triumph of Contrarian Investing, Ned Davis--one of today's most respected and influential market analysts--delivers both qualitative and quantitative proof that, when emotion is at its highest, the investing herd is almost certain to be running in the wrong direction. He then provides indicators to help you determine when crowd psychology is at an extreme, and outlines a disciplined approach for remaining fully and profitably invested in strong market environments while foreseeing and avoiding major market disasters.
This first-of-its-kind contrarian investor's rulebook will show you how to:
Understand the powerful forces of crowd psychology and its historic and predictable impact on financial markets
Quantify and analyze crowd sentiment to identify when that sentiment has gone too far--and is poised to reverse
Ignore popular perceptions and your own emotions to sell during periods of extreme optimism and buy during extreme pessimism
Following the innovative and nontraditional approach that has always been a hallmark of Ned Davis Research, The Triumph of Contrarian Investing combines both qualitative and quantitative indicators into a successful contrarian strategy. Hundreds of charts and graphs reveal how and, more importantly, when contrarian investing principles have proven in past markets to be most successful. Only here will you learn:
At what levels the market's price/earnings ratio, long considered a measure of valuation, can actually be an uncanny yardstick of investor expectations
At what precise point the percentage of household financial assets held in stocks has reliably signaled market peaks and troughs
How the inflow of money into various financial instruments can be confidently used to indicate imminent market turnarounds
In terms of human nature, nothing is more difficult than going against the crowd. In terms of investment performance, on the other hand, nothing is more profitable. Let Ned Davis's The Triumph of Contrarian Investing provide you with analysis and indicators proven to spotlight those points at which investor optimism or pessimism is at its strongest, then show you how to go against the grain--and profit--in virtually every instance.