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Value Averaging: The Safe and Easy Strategy for Higher Investment Returns
BY Michael E. Edleson, William J. Bernstein (Foreword by)
Michael Edleson first introduced his concept of value averaging to the world in an article written in 1988. He then wrote a book entitled Value Averaging in 1993, which has been nearly impossible to find°™until now. With the reintroduction of Value Averaging, you now have access to a strategy that can help you accumulate wealth, increase your investment returns, and achieve your financial goals.
Michael E. Edleson is a Managing Director of Morgan Stanley and oversees the firm's equity risk globally. Prior to that, he was Chief Economist of NASDAQ and a finance professor at Harvard Business School. Edleson earned his PhD at MIT.
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
Foreword by William J. Bernstein.
Preface to the 2006 Edition.
Preface to the 1993 Edition.
1 Market Risk, Timing, and Formula Strategies.
RISK AND MARKET RETURNS.
Market Returns over Time.
Distribution of Market Returns.
Risk and Expected Return.
MARKET TIMING AND FORMULA STRATEGIES.
Timing the Market.
Automatic Timing with Formula Strategies.
2 Dollar Cost Averaging Revisited.
DOLLAR COST AVERAGING: AN EXAMPLE.
Over One-Year Periods.
Over Five-Year Periods.
LONG-TERM PROBLEMS WITH DOLLAR COST AVERAGING.
3 Value Averaging.
VALUE AVERAGING: AN INTRODUCTION.
LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE AND VALUE AVERAGING.
Linear, or Fixed-Dollar, Strategies.
Adjusting Strategies for Growth.
4 Investment Goals with Dollar Cost Averaging.
Using the Formula.
Annuities: Periodic Investments.
Dollar Cost Averaging and Annuities.
READJUSTING THE INVESTMENT PLAN.
The Readjustment Process.
Down-Shifting Investment Risk.
GROWTH-ADJUSTED DOLLAR COST AVERAGING.
Readjusting the DCA Plan.
Appendix to Chapter 4: Constructing a DCA Readjustment Spreadsheet.
5 Establishing the Value Path.
VALUE AVERAGING VALUE PATHS.
The Value Path Formula.
Flexible Variations on the Value Path Formula.
Readjusting the VA Plan.
A Cautionary Note.
An Alternate Method.
Appendix to Chapter 5: Constructing a VA Readjustment Spreadsheet.
6 Avoiding Taxes and Transaction Costs.
TAX CONSIDERATIONS WITH VALUE AVERAGING.
The Advantage of Deferred Gains.
Deferring Capital Gains Taxes: An Example.
A Compromise: No-Sell Value Averaging.
REDUCING TRANSACTION COSTS.
7 Playing Simulation Games.
WHAT AND HOW?
CONSTRUCTING THE SIMULATION.
Appendix to Chapter 7: Constructing a Simulation.
ENDNOTES TO APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 7.
8 Comparing the Strategies.
FIVE-YEAR SIMULATION RESULTS.
Using Growth Adjustments.
TWENTY-YEAR SIMULATION RESULTS.
9 Profiting from Overreaction.
TIRING OF A RANDOM WALK.
Mean Reversion and Overreaction.
A Brief Look at the Data.
WHY DOES THIS MATTER?
10 Details: Getting Started.
USING MUTUAL FUNDS.
The Fund versus Stock Choice.
Information on Specific Funds.
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS.
Using a Side Fund.
Operating Within a Retirement Account.
Establishing a Value Path.
Setting Up a VA Value Path: An Example.
Other Important Considerations.
Using Guidelines and Limits.
NOTES FOR FINANCIAL PLANNERS.
11 Examples: Strategies at Work.
THE GOAL AND INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT.
Choosing an Investment.
Setting the Goal (Dealing with Inflation).
How Much Should He Invest?
INVESTMENT RETURN & TAXES.
IMPLEMENTING DOLLAR COST AVERAGING.
1981: Setting Up DCA.
1982®C1983 Investment Results.
1983: Reassessment and Readjustment.
The 1985 Readjustment.
And So On and So On . . . .
Wrapping It Up: 1991 Results.
IMPLEMENTING VALUE AVERAGING.
Establishing the Value Path.
1983: Readjusting the VA Plan.
Future VA Readjustments.
12 A Final Word.